Despite a global economic slowdown and a softer luxury goods market, the auction world continues to demonstrate its unique resilience. Artworks, which combine aesthetic appeal with investment potential, still attract active buyers, yet the structure of the market is subtly shifting. During the Frieze art week in London at the end of 2024, I visited Sotheby’s, Christie’s, Bonhams, and Phillips to gain insight into how the auction market is adapting to a weaker economy, and to observe how collectors are recalibrating their portfolios in response.
Sotheby’s evening contemporary art auction in London highlighted the enduring appeal of blue-chip artworks. David Hockney’s 1968 painting L'Arbois, Sainte-Maxime sold for £13.15 million, far exceeding its £7–10 million estimate, making it the centerpiece of the evening. This work is not only a crucial turning point in Hockney’s artistic trajectory but also demonstrates his long-term market appreciation. Having sold at Sotheby’s in 2011 for a fraction of its current price, the work’s tenfold increase underscores the consistent investment value of blue-chip artists, even during economic downturns. Hockney drew inspiration from his time in the South of France around Saint-Tropez, using photographic references extensively, and this painting forms a thematic connection with later works such as Portrait of an Artist (Pool with Two Figures) (1972).
According to Tom Eddison, Sotheby’s senior specialist in contemporary art, one strategy driving competitive bidding in a soft market is attention to museum exhibitions. Exhibitions not only enhance the visibility of artists but also tend to boost auction values. For instance, Hockney remains actively creative and will soon have a major retrospective at the Fondation Louis Vuitton, which reinforces collectors’ confidence in his historical works. Similar examples include posthumous exhibitions of Canadian-Chinese artist Matthew Wong, the German painter Anselm Kiefer at the Royal Academy, and American artist Christopher Wool. Museum exposure provides both traffic and narrative, influencing collectors’ investment decisions, which increasingly rely on an artist’s public exhibition history and market momentum rather than solely on aesthetic merit.
Christie’s London evening auction of 20th- and 21st-century art in October 2024 achieved a total of approximately £81 million, representing over 80% growth compared to the previous year. Thirty-three lots were market newcomers, including Franz Gertsch’s self-portrait Selbstbildnis (1980), which sold for £2.58 million. Gertsch, who passed away in 2022, created only 63 works in his lifetime. Known for his hyperrealistic style, most of his paintings have been exhibited internationally, gradually elevating their market potential. In addition to new works, the auction featured private collection pieces appearing on the market for the first time, such as Henri de Toulouse-Lautrec’s La Femme Tatouée (1894), which had remained in private hands since 1922. Christie’s head of evening sales, Anna Touzin, noted that collectors now emphasize works with a strong provenance and exhibition record rather than simply focusing on the artwork’s intrinsic quality. This shift indicates a more cautious and strategic approach to art investment in uncertain times.
By contrast, Bonhams has taken a more exploratory approach, focusing on emerging artists and unconventional subjects. Its first 20th- and 21st-century evening auction in London since Brexit saw fifteen lots sell for a total of £5.29 million, with several lots exceeding estimates, such as Picasso’s Personnages (1967) and Lebanese-American artist Etel Adnan’s Untitled (2014). Hannah Noel-Smith, head of Impressionist and Modern art at Bonhams, noted that 2024 marked the centenary of Surrealism, generating renewed interest in related works, while collectors increasingly look to female artists whose work had previously been overlooked due to gender or limited fame, such as Helen Lundeberg. This trend of “rediscovery” is gaining traction and represents a new wave of market dynamics.
Marina Ruiz-Colomer, head of Post-War and Contemporary Art at Bonhams, emphasized that the contemporary art market evolves faster than other sectors. Banksy’s works, for instance, have appreciated rapidly over the past five years, but with multiple works already in collectors’ hands, market demand is approaching saturation. Consequently, collectors are increasingly seeking similarly styled yet less established artists, a strategy that reduces acquisition costs while offering high potential returns. This approach also applies to Surrealist works, particularly by female artists, who are now being reassessed both academically and commercially, creating a counter-trend within the market.
Phillips has also pursued a distinctive strategy. Its London Berkeley Square evening sale, featuring modern and contemporary art, achieved a total of £1.51 million for thirty-one lots. Among the most surprising results was Marcel Broodthaers’ conceptual work Éloge du Sujet (1974), which sold for £380,000—twice the top estimate. This suggests that conceptual art, while outside the blue-chip mainstream, is attracting collectors seeking uniqueness and forward-thinking perspectives. While such works carry higher uncertainty than stable blue-chip pieces, they also offer the possibility of exceptional upside.
Overall, the 2024 auction market in London displays three key trends: blue-chip artworks remain a reliable investment, particularly those with exhibition history and strong provenance; interest in emerging artists is rising, reflecting a search for high-potential opportunities; and conceptual or unconventional works are gaining recognition, contributing to market diversification. In a soft economic climate, collectors are not merely focused on the quality or renown of the work but are increasingly considering exhibition history, market circulation, historical sales records, and future potential.
Auction houses themselves are also adapting. Sotheby’s, Christie’s, Bonhams, and Phillips have balanced blue-chip and emerging works within their sales, leveraging museum exposure to enhance appeal. For investors, this means selecting artworks now requires a multi-dimensional analysis that accounts for the artist’s academic recognition, market circulation, provenance, and potential for appreciation, all while maintaining resilience against economic uncertainty.
The 2024 London auction market therefore combines caution with innovation. Blue-chip works continue to serve as stable hedges, while the pursuit of emerging artists and unconventional subjects offers collectors multiple pathways to growth. Collectors are learning to diversify their portfolios, balancing steady appreciation with the potential of discovering the next high-performing artist. In the coming years, museum exhibitions, global art trends, and shifting collector preferences will continue to shape the market, creating a hybrid landscape where classical and emerging, conservative and adventurous, coexist.
From the solid investments of Hockney and Bridget Riley to the rediscovered works of Etel Adnan and Helen Lundeberg, and the conceptual edge of Marcel Broodthaers, the auction market demonstrates that collecting art is both a cultural pursuit and a strategic capital allocation. In an era full of challenges and opportunities, collectors need not only vision but also a keen sense of market dynamics and a deep understanding of art itself.
